Cognitive and Affective Predictors of Illinois Residents’ Perceived Risks from Gray Wolves     

Adam C. Landon  Maarten H. Jacobs  Craig A. Miller  Jerry J. Vaske  Brent D. Williams 《社会与自然资源》2020,33(5):574-593

Abstract

Increasing wolf populations are a concern for wildlife managers in the Midwestern U.S. Understanding the psychological mechanisms that contribute to public perceptions of risk will enable development of strategies that seek to mitigate these risks, and suggest where outreach efforts may facilitate acceptance of wolves. We examined the psychological factors that influence Illinois residents’ perceived risks from wolves. We hypothesized that individuals’ perceived risks from wolves were a function of their attitudes toward wolves, negative affect toward wolves, and basic beliefs about wildlife. Data were obtained from a survey of the Illinois public (n?=?784). Negative affect and attitudes toward wolves were direct predictors of perceived risks. Basic beliefs predicted attitudes and negative affect toward wolves. Negative affect predicted attitudes. Basic beliefs had direct and indirect effects on perceived risks.  相似文献   

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example     

Ida K. Westerberg  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1705-1713

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.  相似文献   

迁入地资源环境压力指标体系构建与评价——以贵州省纳雍县为例     

郑钧宁  徐红 《测绘通报》2020,(8):126-130

选取贵州省纳雍县为易地扶贫迁入地研究对象，构建了评价指标体系，对迁入地资源环境压力进行了评价；同时应用层次分析法确定指标权重，计算资源环境压力，并将结果划分为相对高、中、低压力区3个等级。分析结果表明，纳雍县整体资源较为贫乏，生态环境较为脆弱，人均资源量较少，造成资源环境整体压力较大；由贫困发生率与资源环境评价值作相关分析，资源环境压力与贫困发生率呈弱负相关性。  相似文献   

Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

一种旋转塑性势面模型及非关联塑性流动法则     

徐日庆  蒋佳琪  冯苏阳  鞠露莹 《岩土力学》2020,41(5):1474-1482

为了较好地描述软土塑性应变发展规律，提出了一种改进的塑性流动模型。该模型采用了与屈服函数形式相同，但具有一定倾角 的塑性势函数。土体在变形过程中，塑性流动方向会依赖于塑性势面的旋转而变化，直至达到破坏状态。通过对常规三轴试验结果的分析可以发现：在剪切过程中，塑性势面旋转角的初值 与终值 较为稳定，不受围压变化影响。在此试验观察基础上，引入了归一化的旋转角参数 以及描述土体应力状态的参数 ，在采用蛋形势函数的情况下二者具有良好的分段线性关系。利用该关系，建立了改进的塑性流动法则，只需要2个额外的模型参数。对所提出的塑性流动模型进行了验证，计算结果表明该模型能较好地反映塑性应变的变化趋势。  相似文献   

2020年1月19日伽师MS6.4地震灾害损失评估及震害特点分析     

阿里木江·亚力昆  谭明  姚远  张文秀 《内陆地震》2020,34(1):30-39

2020年1月19日新疆伽师发生M S6.4地震,造成1人死亡、2人受伤,各类建(构)筑物、公共服务设施、生命线工程等都遭受不同程度的破坏。按照国家相关标准的原则和方法,通过对本次地震现场震害调查,评估出本次地震造成的总直接经济损失为15.26亿元,灾后恢复重建经费约需20.78亿元,并且分析了本次地震震害特点。这为今后的抗震救灾和灾后重建提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

全球气候变化下南海诸岛保护优先区识别分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

左秀玲  苏奋振  张宇  吴文周  吴迪 《地理学报》2020,75(3):647-661

全球变化下,珊瑚礁保护区是保护生物多样性、增强珊瑚礁对气候变暖抵抗力的有效方式,而维持珊瑚礁弹性是其核心内容。针对珊瑚礁最具有威胁性的热压力因子,基于南海1982—2009年卫星观测海表面温度（SST）数据和CMIP5加拿大地球系统模式CanESM2模型预估的2006—2100年南海SST数据构建热压力强度模型,从维持珊瑚礁弹性的角度识别IPCC RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下南海诸岛保护优先区。结果表明：RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下13%左右的南海诸岛珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区。根据热压力强度与珊瑚抵抗力及避难所关系,西沙群岛七连屿和晋卿岛近年观测与未来预估的热压力强度均比较低,在保障其服务功能的基础上建议实施完全保护;东沙群岛东沙环礁和中沙环礁排洪滩近年观测急性热压力强度较高但未来预估热压力强度较低,建议实施50%禁止利用保护;中沙群岛黄岩岛近年观测和未来预估的急性热压力强度均比较低,建议实施50%多用途保护。南沙群岛有14%左右的珊瑚礁识别为保护优先区,根据其热压力强度可实施30%~100%禁止利用保护或30%~50%多用途保护。RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下的南海诸岛保护优先区及保护对策,可为维持珊瑚礁生态弹性及应对全球气候变化提供重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

Damage assessment for submarine photoelectric composite cable under anchor impact     

《Applied Ocean Research》2018

The impact of dropped anchor on submarine photoelectric composite cables may possibly cause electrical faults, i.e. electricity and optical signal transmission failure. In order to study the impact capacity and structural impact failure mechanism, a test setup is designed originally to examine the structural and functional integrity. A detailed finite element model (FEM) is created, considering material nonlinearity and component interaction. A parametric analysis has been performed to predict the deformation of components and impact forces, under different impact velocities and collision directions. Relationships between the armor layer indentation rate and that of internal power and optical units are achieved. The impact deformation of internal entities can be evaluated intuitively by armor layer indentation. The proposed experimental and numerical methods are well correlated, suitable to assess the impact capacity of subsea power cables and assist the protection design of subsea power cables in engineering.  相似文献   

济南东部岩溶水有机污染健康风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

张海林  林广奇  马河宽  刘文 《山东国土资源》2018,34(11)

近年来,济南岩溶水有机污染越来越突出,为了探究济南岩溶水有机污染对居民健康造成的影响,保障饮用水安全,该文在系统分析研究区水文地质条件的基础上,采用USEPA推荐的健康风险评价模型,根据实际采样测试数据,分析评价了济南东部3处岩溶水井点的有机污染对其范围内暴露人群造成的健康风险。结果表明:检出的主要有机污染物为三氯甲烷、四氯化碳、三氯乙烯、四氯乙烯。3个水井的有机污染非致癌风险未超过限值1,在可接受的范围内,四氯化碳的非致癌风险所占比例最大,为89.85%; 3个采样点有机污染致癌风险,超出了其可接受水平的最小限制10-6,但均未超出可接受的致癌风险的最大限制10-4,风险指数均在10-6~5.0×10-5之间,应该引起关注,产生致癌风险的主要污染物为三氯乙烯。有机污染非致癌风险和致癌风险的主要暴露途径为呼吸吸入,其次是饮水吸收,皮肤接触暴露途径风险值最小。  相似文献   

Prediction of vegetation anomalies over an inland river basin in north‐western China          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Fu  Jun Niu  Bellie Sivakumar 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1814-1827

Vegetation cover plays an important role in linking the atmosphere, water, and land and is deemed as a key indicator in the terrestrial ecological system. Therefore, it is of great importance to monitor vegetation dynamics and understand the mechanisms of vegetation change, including that driven by climate change. This study examines (a) the evolution of vegetation dynamics over the Heihe River Basin in the typical arid zone in north‐western China using nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Thiel Sen's slope; (b) the relationships between remotely sensed vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) and hydroclimatic variables based on correlation analysis; and (c) the prediction of vegetation anomalies using a multiple linear regression model. For the analysis, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI/EVI product and the gridded daily meteorological data at a spatial resolution of 0.125° over the period 2001–2010 are considered. The results indicate that vegetation cover improved over a large proportion during 2001–2010, with a significant trend towards warm and wet, characterized by an increase in average annual temperature and precipitation by 0.042 °C/year and 5.8 mm/year, respectively. We test the feasibility of NDVI and EVI in quantifying the responses of vegetation anomaly to climate change and develop a statistical model to predict vegetation dynamics in the basin. The NDVI‐based model is found to be more reliable than the EVI‐based model, partly due to the vegetation characteristics and geomorphologic properties of the study region. The proposed model performs well when there is no lag time between meteorological factors and vegetation indices for grassland and cropland, whereas 1‐month lead time prediction is found to be best for forest. The soil water content is introduced as an extra explanatory variable, which effectively improves the prediction accuracy for different land use types. In general, the predictive ability of the proposed model is stable and satisfactory, and the model can provide useful early warning information for regional water resources management under changing climate.  相似文献